Some indicators that may confirm or refute the hypotheses
of this scenario are discussed below. Also,
some trends that may exacerbate or ameliorate the dangers are discussed.
The household saving ratio is the proportion of household
disposable income that is not consumed. It
has dropped from 15% in the mid-1970’s to about 3% in 2000.
This ratio was negative in the USA in 2000.
This ratio is measured by the ABS in the national accounts
data. Survey data on willingness
and ability to save is tracked by foreseechange.
This can be analysed by demographics.
The household saving ratio should recover strongly until
2012 as the baby boomer generation’s discretionary income peaks and they save
for retirement. See the Australian
Financial Review of March 17 1998 (page 24) for my forecast of this recovery.
If this recovery does not take place then the baby boomers
will have less savings to draw on in retirement and they will place political
pressure on the politicians for the government to provide retirement income –
and their weight of voting numbers will be hard to ignore.
This would lead to increased taxes and/or increased budget deficits.
Health costs can be tracked in the state and federal
government budgets. In 2001,
diabetes was clearly an emerging catastrophe, as the incidence was increasing
rapidly and especially at younger ages.
In 2000, a study co-ordinated by the International Diabetes Institute showed that the number of adults with diabetes in Australia increased by 230% between 1981 and 2000. In the age group 45 to 54 the prevalence of diabetes had increased by 340%. That is, the baby boomers had a much higher incidence of diabetes than the previous generations had at the same age. Furthermore adult-onset (type 2) diabetes, which is the result of a combination of poor diet and a sedentary lifestyle had shown up in under-40 age groups, whereas in the past it was restricted to people over 50.
This rapid increase in diabetes and other lifestyle-related
illnesses is expected to continue, according to a University of South Australia
report that compared the attitudes to exercise and diet of children in 2000 to
those of their counterparts 15 years earlier.
Newspaper reports and, with some lag, data from the ABS and from ABARE will indicate production trends.
In 2001, there were several reports about how the weather
was cutting agricultural production:
Environmental pressure groups launched an international
campaign against the world’s largest oil corporation, which they say has
opposed moves to combat global warming. Greenpeace
and Friends of the Earth in May 2001 asked consumers to stop buying petrol and
other products from Exxon Mobil (trading under the Esso name in some countries)
until the company changes its stand on climate change.
This is a good test of the likely effectiveness of greenhouse boycotts.
In
2000, forest management in Western Australia was judged to be a long way from
sustainable by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). This led to the cancellation of a long-standing contract to
supply sleepers for Railtrack in UK. In
the USA, Home Depot now only sells timber certified by the FSC as sourced from
sustainable forests.
Residents in Katherine, Northern Territory, had some insurance premiums rise by 800% following heavy flooding in the area. Insurance companies are experts at assessing risk, so the trend in premiums should be telling. Globally, the economic toll of “natural” disasters topped $608 billion, more than the previous four decades combined.