This diary records information relevant to this scenario
that has emerged after the first draft. It
is a mechanism for judging the likelihood of the scenario becoming fact.
June 2001:
A study by Deakin University’s Physical Activity Research
Unit has revealed that levels of physical activity in Australian children has
dropped low enough to put them at risk of serious illness in later life.
The Sunday Age, June 24, 2001.
June 2001
The Victorian Government’s ability to manage the salinity
crisis rapidly poisoning vast parts of the state has been questioned in a report
from the Auditor-General’s office. Salinity
in Victoria is costing $50 million a year in lost production, and the cost is
rising. The Age, June 14, 2001.
June 2001:
Victorians face the prospect of unsafe water supplies in
the next ten years unless there is good investment in the state’s water and
sewerage systems, the State Government warned yesterday.
The government was seeking to justify an average $23 a year rise in
household water bills. The Age, June 27, 2001.
Water supplies in the Wimmera and Mallee remain at a critical level despite good rains earlier this month. Storage levels in the system have hovered just into the double digit levels for months. The Weekly Times, June 27, 2001.
June 2001
The latest commodity report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics shows dramatically how a combination of a low dollar, good commodity prices, low interest rates and well-timed rain in eastern Australia have combined to provide what farmers and rural service companies say are the best conditions in decades. But it’s not a uniform good news story when it comes to natural conditions. The vast West Australian wheat belt is desperately waiting for rain after sowing in minimum dry conditions. The Australian Financial Review, 23-24 June, 2001.
September 2002
Australia is facing its worst grain season in a decade due to the worsening drought, an the Federal Government's commodity forecasting agency yesterday cut its winter crop predictions for the third time in nearly as many months. The latest forecast is 40% lower than the original predictions made back in March. The Australian Financial Review 11 September 2002.
March 2002
Canada appears to be getting warmer all the time with the country's two largest
cities, Montreal and Toronto, experiencing their warmest winters on record,
Canada's environment minister said. Across Canada, unseasonably warm
temperatures prevailed throughout the winter for the 19th consecutive season,
beginning in 1997, in which average temperatures were above normal. The
agricultural provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, hit with half the
normal snowfall, could have a hard spring as crops depend on run-off from the
thaw. (ABC online news 8 March 2002).
March 2002
Australia's refusal to ratify the Kyoto protocol on greenhouse gas reductions
was a humiliating decision for a country that should be a leader in developing
non-polluting energy, according to environmentalist David Suzuki. In an
address to the National Press Club, he urged Australia to pour billions of
dollars into clean energy research. "I look to Australia to be the
world leader in solar energy in the coming years." He was surprised
that the Howard Government had not changed its mind about ratifying the Kyoto
protocol in view of the mounting scientific data on the effects of climate
change. Businesses could make and save large amounts of money by reaching
Kyoto targets and becoming more efficient, he said. (The Age March 12 2002).
April 2002
Lakes forming in the Himalayas and other mountain ranges because of global
warming threaten the lives of tens of thousands of people, UN scientists have
warned. The lakes are being created - mostly where none existed in living
memory - as glaciers retreat and high-altitude snowfields melt in response to a
one-degree temperature rise over 25 years. The study of lakes in Nepal and
Bhutan, released by UN scientists is London, found that 44 were filling so
rapidly that they were in danger of bursting within 5 to 10 years sending
millions of litres of water into populated valleys. There are expected to
be hundreds more such liquid timebombs in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tibet,
and China. Millions of people live in the danger area. There were no
records of glacial lake "outburst floods" until one in Tibet in 1954,
which flowed 50 kilometres into China. They were assumed to be events that
occurred once in 500 years, but since the mid-1950's there have been others, the
largest causing damage over 100 kilometres away. (The Age April 18 2002).
April 2002
The first three months of 2002 were the warmest globally since records began in
1860 and probably for 1,000 years, according to British research. Although
Australian temperatures were cooler than average for the same period, CSIRO
researchers say the findings are consistent with global-warming models that
predict Australian temperatures will soar by up to seven degrees by 2070.
According to the World Meteorology Organisation, 9 of the 10 warmest years on
record have occurred in the past decade. (The Age April 27 2002).
May 2002
Australia has had its hottest April on record, according to the Australian
Bureau of Meteorology. Dean Collins, senior meteorologist at the weather
bureau's national climate centre, says the average maximum Australia-wide
temperature in the month was 31.1 degrees celsius, while the mean
Australian temperature was 24 degrees. On 1 May, Perth experienced a
maximum temperature of 34.3 degrees celsius at 2.18pm. This was by far the
hottest day ever recorded in Perth in May, since records began 105 years
ago. The previous record was 32.4 degrees on 2 May 1907. The average
maximum for May is 21 degrees.
September 2002
This years winter in Melbourne was the mildest since records began in 1856
A member of the European Parliament has warned Australia could face economic sanctions unless it ends its policy of mandatory detention for asylum seekers. European Parliament member Gianni Pitella has called on the European Commission to reconsider commercial ties with Australia. (ABC online news 9 March 2002)