Take Technology Forecasts with a Grain of Salt and a Dose of Reality
D, Thomas
May 2000
It is a world encased in a communications skin in which millions of sensors chatter to each other, swapping information and initiating tasks, but with little intervention from humans.
Your lawn sprinkler will check the website of the national weather service to make sure the forecast isn't for rain, before turning itself on.
To me this is reminiscent of forecasts I read about in comics during the 1950's and 1960's. Humans were going to control the weather, directing rain to farms only when they needed it and over catchment areas when dams were low. Cloud seeding experiments were underway.
The reality is that far from controlling the weather, we have made it more chaotic by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. To think that weather forecasters are going to make accurate predictions about the timing, amount, and location (to backyard detail) of rainfall is laughable. Perhaps a moisture detector in the soil would be far more practical (and already available) – only turning on sprinklers when the ground is dry.
Another comic-book forecast I remember was that in the future, we would carry food pills to satisfy hunger. We could choose a steak and vegetables or chicken maryland pill to sustain us. This might be useful for astronauts but most of us enjoy the sensual pleasure of food and the social delights of dining with friends or family. I haven't seen food pills in the supermarkets yet.
Consumers in Europe, Britain, and other countries have rejected genetically modified (GM) food. In a remarkable reflection of consumer sentiment, Deutsche Bank, Europe's biggest bank, said in a report sent to several thousand of the world's large institutional investors that "growing
negative sentiment" is creating problems for the leading companies, including Monsanto and Novartis. Deutsche has advised investors to sell their shares in leading companies involved in the development of GM organisms. I wonder what forecasts of consumer reaction these companies made?In forecasting the impact of technology, it is important to separate the futuristic from the realistic and the possible from the probable. Forecasts from the 1970's (in more serious publications than comics) included the paperless office and the 20 hour week! My office is the perfect example of how wrong technology forecasts can be.