Scenarios are possible future situations, rather than forecasts. They are intended to be used as a basis for evaluating how robust strategic plans are in an uncertain future. So long as a scenario is plausible, there is no need to assign a likelihood of it occurring because its purpose is to assist in identifying strategic weaknesses – or in listing strategic imperatives.
These scenario seeds are intended to provide ideas for full scenario development. That full exposition will of course be contingent on a particular strategic context.
The Peaceful Anti-Globalisation Protest
Charlie Nelson, April 2001
| Synopsis | Growing consumer concerns about the environment, home economies, and exploitation of labour in developing countries leads to the erection of trade barriers based on Product Virtues. That is, how good a product is in terms of the intended application plus how virtuous the manufacturing and transportation of the product is in a broader sense. |
| Driving Forces | As consumers grow older, they become more concerned about
both their own health and the consequences of their purchasing beyond
their use. Such considerations include pollution and keeping jobs in
their own country. Increased affluence allows these concerns to be
acted upon. In the developed countries, the average age of the
population is increasing rapidly as the large baby-boomer generation, with
house-buying and family commitments lessening, reaches the peak of their
discretionary spending power.
The internet facilitates rapid dissemination of information about the activities of global companies. |
| Signs | Large-scale rejection of genetically modified (GM)
foods in Britain, Europe, Japan, and Australia.
Green groups plan to boycott Exxon-Mobil and other companies that back the USA decision not to ratify the Kyoto protocol to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Growing concern about how many miles a product has travelled (and how much carbon dioxide has been emitted in the transportation). Strong acceptance in Australia of Dick Smith Foods, with the stated aim of maximising Australian ownership and product. |