Our Purpose
The objective of FutureToolKit is to help organisations make better decisions
about the future. There are several components of better decision making.
- We need models that can quantify the impact of various influences on the
future. For example, we may need to quantify the influence of price,
advertising, interest rates, and employment growth on sales. These models
can then be used for prediction and sensitivity testing or scenario
evaluation.
- The construction of such models requires not only theoretical and
practical knowledge about modelling techniques but also information about
the market or other phenomenon we aim to model. This means going
beyond textbooks and studying the real environment.
- Sometimes we need to make decisions in the face of uncertainty. To
do this, it is important to think about the discontinuities that the
business environment could surprise us with and ensure that our plans are
sound for a range of plausible futures.
- We should also spend time thinking about the future we want and how we can
contribute towards achieving it - a sequence of short term decisions, no
matter how sound, do not guarantee the best long term outcome.
Our web site aims to combine the science and art of forecasting and future
planning. We offer forecasting tools, practical forecasting advice,
forecasts and information, and ideas about the future.
Feedback and contributions are welcome. Unless otherwise stated, all
opinions are those of Charlie Nelson. Last updated 6 June 2000.