Nelson's Column

Generation and Age both Important in Forecasting Consumer Attitudes

Charlie Nelson

January 2001

Attitudes can change as we age, but it is possible to make inaccurate forecasts on the basis of a snapshot of attitudes. For example, the chart below suggests that people are more likely to agree that they stick with well-known brand names as they grow older (1975 data).

Given the increasing average age of the population since 1975, it would have been tempting to predict that there would be an overall increase in the importance of well-known brands. On the other hand, it may have transpired that there was a generation effect at work – that is, generations born before the Baby Boomers (who were 20 to 29 in 1975) may be increasingly more attached to brands.

As it turns out, the second explanation was correct.

Indeed, brand loyalty decreased for all generations between 1975 and 1985, in addition to younger generations being less brand loyal.

Forecasts of attitude change are often made on the basis of a snapshot – this data, published in American Demographics November 2000, shows the potential pitfall.

There are a number of books about generational change, for example “Rocking the Ages” by J. Walter Smith and Ann Clurman; and “Millenials Rising” by Neil Howe and William Strauss. A study of generations in Australia has been commenced, contact foreseechange for details.