Forecasting Principles and Applications

Stephen A. DeLurgio, Irwin/McGraw-Hill 1998

This is a reasonably comprehensive introductory book on forecasting.  It comes with a disk containing 250 time series and 35 spreadsheet templates for "hands-on" experience of various forecasting methods.

There are six major sections:

  1. Foundations of Forecasting (Introduction, Statistics, and Regression Analysis);

  2. Univariate Methods (Smoothing, Decomposition, Holt-Winters, and Fourier Series);

  3. Univariate ARIMA Methods;

  4. Multivariate Methods (Multiple Regression, Econometrics, Intervention Models, Transfer Function Models);

  5. Cyclical, Qualitative, and Artificial Intelligence Methods (including technological and neural network forecasting methods);

  6. Validation and Managerial Issues (combining forecasts, validation and control, comparing and selecting methods).

The major omission for a comprehensive text is methods for new product forecasting - such as diffusion models and discrete choice models.

This is a good teaching and reference text.  It possibly emphasizes a process for forecasting at the expense of discovery and insight into market behaviour which is also an essential ingredient for accurate forecasting.

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