Provides compelling evidence that conventional economic forecasting does not predict
turning points, but that surveys of the general public can be analysed to predict
turning points and to predict levels accurately. Based on Australian data, demonstrates
leading indicators for household consumption expenditure, real GDP, house prices,
the household saving ratio, and changing interest rate sensitivity. Published November
The book is about forecasting skills in two senses:
· Forecasting skill is a measure of the extent to which forecasts are more accurate
than those produced by naive methods such as trend extrapolation. The book aims
to improve skill in this sense.
· There is a range of skills needed by the individual or the team making forecasts
and the book identifies theses skills through evaluation of forecasting performance
in several fields and through case studies. The skills span a wide range including
knowledge, experience, and ways of thinking.